Climate Factors Effect on the Transmission Rates of COVID-19 and Influenza-like Illnesses: A comparative Study

Abstract:

A new pandemic started in Dec 2019 in Wuhan, China. Causing flu-like symptoms and severe respiratory complexities, the virus became known as SARS-CoV-2, and the disease was named COVID-19. The timing of the outbreak, overlapping with the cold and flu season, prompted scientists and environmental modelers to ponder the impact of weather conditions on the virus's transmissibility. As with many respiratory viruses, the question remains if there is seasonality to the spread of the virus. Despite many studies, the weather's role on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 is not yet fully understood. This research aims to explore the relationship between climate factors and the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2. Eventually, we aim to forecast the climate-driven seasonality pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate and compare it to the observed pattern of the influenza-like illnesses (ILI). We used three models to explore the relationship between the climate variables and the ILI and COVID-19 transmission rates. We found that climate variables that affect ILI, affect COVID-19 transmissibility in similar ways. Our study suggests that weather conditions have a lagged effect of 11 days on observed transmissibility in both COVID-19 and ILI. Daytime hours, UV irradiation, temperature, absolute humidity, and atmospheric sea-level pressure were the most significant variables explaining the variation in the virus transmission rates. Our analysis reveals that the transmission rate of COVID-19 is expected to decrease in sunnier, warmer, and humid environments. This study provides preliminary evidence that the seasonality of COVID-19 closely follows the seasonality pattern of the ILI, with the peak transmission rates occurring in the colder, drier and darker months of the year. If the spread of the virus is not controlled by the public health measures such as wearing masks and following social distancing, our results suggest that the environmental condition in the coming fall and winter creates a favorable situation for a resurgence.