GC084-0012
Extreme Heat Events Analysis and its Relation to Social Vulnerability in Hermosillo, México
Monday, 14 December 2020
Poster
Javier Navarro-Estupiñan, Instituto Tecnologico de Sonora, Dept. of Water and Environmental Sciences, Cd. Obregón, Mexico, Agustin Robles-Morua, Sonora Institute of Technology, Department of Water and Environmental Sciences, Obregón, SO, Mexico, Enrique R Vivoni, Arizona State University, School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Tempe, AZ, United States and Jose A. Montoya Sr., University of Sonora, Department of Mathematics, Hermosillo, SO, Mexico
Abstract:
The specific focus of this research is the examination of extreme heat events and their relationship with socioeconomical indicators and land use in a semiarid region in northwestern México. In the first section, the main goal was to explore the temporal variability of extreme heat across the state of Sonora, México. Heat Days (HDs) and Heat Waves (HWs) were used as indicators to investigate historical trends. Furthermore, HDs were represented using a generalized linear regression model during the observed period (1966–2015) to generate future scenarios related to extreme heat and subsequently compared with six downscaled general circulation models (CNRM-CM5, CSIRO Mk3.6.0, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR and IPSL-CM5A-MR) under low and high radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Results of this study indicated that climate stations in Sonora have exhibited significant increases in maximum temperatures, HDs and HWs in the historical record that can be associated to physical factors such as elevation, urban land cover and the percent of annual rainfall during the summer. Statistical and model-based projections indicate that these trends will continue in the future up to 2060, with less moderate increases and high uncertainty noted for the difference scenarios of the downscaled models.
The second section explores the spatiotemporal variability of Land Surface Temperature (LST). A heat risk map was created for the city of Hermosillo, Mexico using LST retrieved from remotely-sensed imagery from LandSat 8 for an extended period of time (2013 to 2017). A time stability analysis was introduced to identify sites above and below the spatially-averaged conditions within the city. Outcomes of the time stability analysis were then used as a heat exposure map, while a series of socioeconomic factors were applied to identify the vulnerability of different social sectors to urban heat through a spatial clustering technique. The resulting heat risk map for Hermosillo is an effective planning tool for developing heat mitigation strategies, including the placement of green infrastructure, as well as an aid to communication campaigns during summer heat waves.
