Coral Reefs Are Complex and So Are the Science Disciplines Needed to Save Them

Abstract:

The coral reef ecosystem is gravely threatened by climate change. According to projections of ocean warming, which is causing increasingly severe and widespread bleaching of reef corals worldwide, the vast majority of coral reefs will be lost within a few decades. Multiple solutions to sustain coral reefs are being developed and implemented, but most are local to regional solutions that do not scale to entire reef systems. Impacts of such solutions are maximized by identifying locations where: (1) coral communities have a higher probability of survival (e.g., reef refugia), and (2) conservation efforts will extend to surrounding reefs (e.g., high connectivity). These challenges extend beyond the biological or ecological disciplines to climate change, meteorology, and physical oceanography, and these varied disciplines must be applied for individual coral reefs up to regional and global scales. We describe how our interdisciplinary team is working to produce a high-resolution ocean model capable of resolving reef refugia over entire reef systems at the small scales of internal gravity waves and coastal processes. The ocean model is used to drive larval dispersal models that can identify reef locations that best support corals at the regional scale of species populations. This work, which focuses on the eastern tropical Pacific, is challenging for many reasons, including: the need to apply cutting edge science and computing; uncertainty in biological responses of the organisms; stochasticity of larval dispersal; and lack of high-resolution observations for model verification. These challenges are overcome in part by NCAR’s efforts to support high-risk interdisciplinary research with potential to solve big problems; in part by the assembly of the team, which includes researchers from multiple institutions (including in locations where reefs are locally important), multiple disciplines, and multiple stages of career; and in large part by a common motivation to apply cutting edge research toward practical solutions.