Useful, useable, and scalable: Climate adaptation science to support adaptive management in the US Caribbean

Abstract:

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources want to develop a portfolio of actions to enhance the status of 2 endangered species and prevent the listing of 14 species in the genus Eleutherodactylus, commonly known as the “coqui.” Responding to this need, since 2013 we have developed an ongoing multi-disciplinary and collaborative project aimed at gaining foundational knowledge to build a robust, well-informed adaptive conservation strategy. To date, we have combined high resolution climate modeling with on-the-ground field ecology to identify environmental factors influencing key population characteristics of these species, and their potential level of exposure to climatic changes that would threaten continued population persistence on the island. The current stage of research is focused on refining estimates of these species’ adaptive capacity and sensitivity to a warming climate through laboratory experiments, translocation experiments, and landscape genomics analyses. This work supports our efforts, in collaboration with managers, to frame a conservation strategy centered on two classes of adaptation actions: (1) translocations or introductions and (2) climate refugia conservation. Overall this project represents a potential ‘gold standard’ of CASC-supported adaptation science. Rather than a purely ‘top-down’ or ‘bottom-up’ approach to adaptation science, we have consistently engaged in a ‘middle-out’ strategy that enhances value for the targeted managers in the form of actionable scientific knowledge and insights, while also leading with new research that is broad enough in scope to be useful to a wide array of stakeholders.