GC064-04
Climate Change Impacts on the Water-Energy-Food Nexus of the Zambezi River Basin

Thursday, 10 December 2020: 17:42
Virtual
Raphaël Payet-Burin, DTU Environment, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark, Silvio Pereira-Cardenal, COWI A/S, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark, Mikkel Kromann, Dansk Energi, Copenhagen, Denmark, Kenneth Strzepek, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States and Peter Bauer-Gottwein, Technical University of Denmark, Department of Environmental Engineering, Copenhagen, Denmark
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
The Zambezi River Basin is shared by eight countries with growing populations and economies, leading to growing demands for water, energy and food. While current trade-offs are limited, new infrastructure (e.g. irrigation, hydropower) planned to satisfy the growing demands, combined to climate change impacts might turn water into a scarce resource.

We investigate the climate change impacts on the water-energy-food nexus of the Zambezi River Basin using the WHAT-IF model. WHAT-IF is a hydroeconomic decision support tool, linking representations of the water, agriculture, and power systems in a holistic framework. It has a bottom-up approach, the management of local infrastructure (e.g. reservoirs, irrigation, water supply, energy production, transmission) is solved simultaneously in order to maximize welfare benefits considering crop and power markets and trade.

We run the model through a large range of climate change scenarios and analyze how these affect the food and energy systems and interactions between them. We also investigate how modelling assumptions affect the results: (1) how is the intermittency in the power system and the variability of renewable energy represented, (2) how are crop markets and trade represented, (3) how are results affected if the analyze is performed in silos (e.g. impact on energy if agriculture is not modeled and vice-versa)

Finally, we provide insights on current limitations of the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) IMPACT model, which supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales.

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