Earth Science for Society: Informing State and Local Adaptation to Climate Change

Abstract:

Millions were without power in 2019, as wildfire risk and high winds prompted public safety power shutoffs across large areas of California. Also, communities in coastal Virginia and Florida experience flooding with increasing regularity driven in part by rising sea levels. In responding to the effects of climate change, state and local governments, planning agencies, businesses, and community-based organizations need actionable science and information that reflects the local context. Providing this information requires: 1) advances in climate modeling that downscale projections to local conditions and concerns; and 2) engagement with decision makers and stakeholders to synthesize findings of downscaled models into actionable information. In 2018, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop on sub-national climate change assessments where participants discussed earth science and community and decision maker engagement efforts that help support state and local responses to climate change. This paper updates examples from the two-day workshop with an emphasis on bridging science to climate adaptation. With examples across geographic regions, the paper discusses:

• Downscaled climate modeling in California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment improve understanding of growing wildfire and extreme heat risks. State and local leaders are working to refine and implement adaptation measures. Following widespread multiday public safety power system shutoffs in 2019, interest in expanding access to local, resilient electricity resources is on the rise.
• The USGS developed an online tool using downscaled climate modeling to assist planning for the combined impact of sea level rise, storm surge, and rising water tables. Informed by such planning tools, coordination among coastal communities can yield more equitable outcomes.
• Decision tools are available incorporating climate science of “atmospheric rivers.” Partnerships on a state-funded research project spurred a local water agency to update reservoir management practices, increasing resilience to extreme rain events.

Drawing on these examples, this paper identifies effective strategies for engaging decision makers in tailoring climate science to support local needs.