H017-05
Investigation of the 2016 Eurasian Heatwave and its Representation by the Seasonal Forecast System

Monday, 7 December 2020: 10:46
Virtual
Eunkyo Seo, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Korea, Republic of (South), Myong-In Lee, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan, Korea, Republic of (South), Siegfried D Schubert, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, Randal D Koster, NASA Goddard SFC, Greenbelt, MD, United States and Hyun-Suk Kang, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
This study investigates the mechanisms of 2016 Eurasian heatwave event for boreal summer season (July–August) in perspective of the Eurasia continental scale. Trend maps of JA mean surface temperature and soil moisture for 37 years (1980–2016) shows the significant warm and dryness with a tri-pole pattern over the Eurasia continent, characterized by much above normal over eastern Europe, East Asia, and the Kamchatka Peninsula. The 2016 JA mean surface soil moisture, surface air temperature, and upper-level height anomalies reveal a wave train-like structure which resembles to the recent trend in those variables. To identify the impact of land, ocean, and sea-ice conditions on the heatwave, this study performs four sets of 50-member ensemble forecast experiments with the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5). Results show the abnormal surface warming over Eurasia in 2016 summer was driven by record-breaking oceanic warming and tri-pole blocking pattern was amplified by the land-atmosphere interaction from the heterogeneous land surface dry condition.
<< Previous Abstract | Next Abstract >>