Agricultural stability explains the location choices of internally displaced people (IDPs) during the Syrian Civil War

Abstract:

Data scarcity has been an obstacle to understanding basic dynamics of conflict-induced displacement and mobility in active war zones, such as the Syrian civil war. Thanks to new data on internal displacement (the Displacement Tracking Matrix from the International Organization for Migration), we can answer previously untestable questions about human mobility choices -population flows- within countries at war. We set out to test the hypothesis that internally displaced people (IDPs) base location decisions on the stability of institutions, which provide IDPs with personal security, food security and employment. We posited that agricultural stability is a proxy for institutional stability, assuming that local agricultural production amidst war depends on larger economic fundamentals protected by institutions, which include functioning infrastructure networks, water provisioning systems, food processing capabilities, market access and labor markets. To test this hypothesis, we mapped annual agricultural extent across Syria from 2000-2019 using all available Landsat Surface Reflectance-corrected imagery and Google Earth Engine. We then implemented a Mantel test, which quantifies correlation between matrices, to test whether month-to-month IDPs flows (between 272 locations from 2015 to 2017) correlated with agriculture differentials calculated at different time periods for the same locations. We determined that agricultural differentials explain the majority of variance in IDPs’ month-to-month mobility to potential destinations. We found that correlation rises in the months following the end of the rain- and irrigation-fed agricultural seasons, suggesting that during the harvest season, agricultural differentials are a stronger pull factor for IDPs. We conclude that differentials in agricultural stability are, indeed, strong “pull” and “mooring” factors for IDPs during the Syrian civil war. This may be because IDPs are responding to food security concerns or are seeking employment. In either case, stable agriculture is a proxy for functioning institutions, suggesting that IDPs’ location choice is related to the persistence of institutions. Recognizing the importance of institutional stability in IDP location choices informs how we can best protect civilians in the context of war.