Climate Change, Water Resources Degradation and Water Scarcity Risk: A Cross-Section of Informal Settlements in Dhaka City

Abstract:

Climate change poses a complex multi-facet threat to informal settlements- particularly in centralized cities like Dhaka. In one side, the residents face challenges posed by environmental degradations with social, economic, and political consequences exacerbated by climate change. On the other hand, as climate migrants flocking into “big” cities, the slums are likely to be hit by resource crisis further. Immediate pressure falls upon housing and water resources. While housing crisis bears passive impact, water scarcity endures direct effects. Unfortunately, climate scenario-based study of water scarcity in urban informal settlements of Dhaka is absent.

In our working paper, we attempted to evaluate how changes in climate over the past decades (1953 to 2017) and ongoing water resources degradation have intensified risks associated with water scarcity in slums of Dhaka. Using simulated Regional Climate Model data, we then projected potential risks for near future (till 2030) for intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios. Inferential statistical methods along with ethnographic approach of research were combined to gain insight into the water scarcity problems.

The study indicates an increase in daily water requirements in slums, as much as 10 litres per household by 2030, which shows 6% increase from their present demand. This small increase in water requirement can potentially increase the number of trips or time to collect water for the slum dwellers. Dhaka exhibits a significant trend of groundwater depletion, 2-3 meters a year, due to over-extraction- which directly threatens water scarcity. Water prices went from 7 times to 17.3 times higher than regular prices in slums, despite an increase in regular prices. Field observations suggest that water scarcity in slums is not gender neutral. Imposed gender roles and relationships put women on higher risks than men. Overall, we see how changes in climate and water resources impact the social, economic, environmental and governance dynamics of slum dwellers- the most marginal communities in the city.

It is evident from the study that climate scenario-based studies along with community participation can unravel useful evidence for future preparedness. The aim of the study is to promote scientific evidence-based policy, planning and governance.