Evaluating the temporal implications of land cover change on watershed hydrology across the continental US with an integrated hydrologic model

Abstract:

Land use/land cover changes (LULCC), which are driven by both anthropogenic activities and changes in climate, highly influence hydrologic processes. In order to efficiently plan for future water demand, it is important to understand how LULCC will affect water fluxes over time. Although the influence of LULCC on water fluxes and water balance partitioning has been studied at smaller scales, the hydrologic response to these variations over large spatial scales is less certain. High-resolution, PDE-based, continental-scale hydrology models offer the ability to quantify water and understand regional impacts of changes to the hydrologic cycle. Using these models in concert with LULCC scenarios, it is possible to elucidate the hydrologic response and variability from changes in the terrestrial land surface. We use ParFlow-CONUS, a high-resolution, physically based model that has effectively simulated hydrologic processes at continental scales. Utilizing this large-scale model, we incorporate conterminous United States land cover projection data from the USGS FORE-SCE model to simulate different climate change scenarios over time. Because ParFlow-CONUS is an integrated hydrologic model that simulates the water cycle from the subsurface to the tree canopy, we are able to comprehensively evaluate changes in water fluxes and identify variations in water balance partitioning as a result of LULCC. ParFlow-CONUS offers high potential for understanding how a warming climate and LULCC influence water resources and can offer insight into the effects these fluctuations will have on humans in the future.