Weather Impacts On Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Plant Performance

Abstract:

Photovoltaic power plants are often exposed to potential disruptions in service due to extreme or rare weather events (such as hurricanes and blizzards). Extreme weather events can potentially lead to fluctuating energy production levels (i.e., from snow covering arrays) or permanent damage (e.g. glass breakage from hail or high winds). The susceptibility of PV plants to damage from extreme weather depends on a site’s geographic and climate conditions, as well as the PV system design and construction. However, routine analysis of collected meteorological and performance data often focuses on quantifying site-level deviations and overlooks the impact of systemic regional variations arising from climate and operational activities. We consider the role of compound weather events (e.g. the co-occurrence of above average temperatures and wind speeds) may play in understanding diverse performance responses. Specifically, we employ statistical techniques and machine learning to help identify the magnitude and variability, respectively, of extreme weather impacts on site performance. Preliminary results from an analysis of multiple utility-scale PV plants distributed throughout the United States will be presented. This work allows us to improve our understanding of extreme weather events on PV-based energy, especially as the industry continues to expand into new regions.

Acknowledgements: Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International, Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA-0003525. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government. SAND No. SAND2020-7787 A. This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) under Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) Agreement Number 34172.