Mapping Urban-Rural Land Teleconnections in the United States Using Graphical Networks

Abstract:

Cities influence land use change on neighboring and distal areas through sociopolitical or infrastructural connections between urban and non-urban regions, also termed teleconnections. While teleconnections are generally recognized as important land cover dynamics, many land use and land cover change (LULCC) modeling efforts do not explicitly account for non-contiguous spatial urban-land relationships. Here we map urban land teleconnections in the US using information theoretic approaches to examine long-term (1950-2016) changes in urban land cover and urban land intensity in urban areas (census defined “urban area”) relative to land dynamics in other cities and rural lands (counties), located both proximate and distal to each city. Overly complex networks were reduced to more meaningful relationships using topological constraints and network optimization. Nationwide, urban land increased whereas urban land intensity (population per km² of urban land) decreased over time, indicating a general model of progressively extensive urbanization; however, trends varied dramatically amongst cities. Agriculture land generally decreased or stayed constant whereas agricultural production intensity (tons per km²) increased. In total, optimal urban-rural land network complexity and network size ranged dramatically and depended on the information theory metric and variables under consideration. In contrast, optimal city-city networks and neighborhoods were very large, suggesting the complex and simultaneous effects of globalization on cities. Our results suggest that changes in urban land intensity, rather than urban land cover alone, induce more numerous effects on proximate and distal rural lands, as well as other cities. Predictive models of teleconnection strength suggested that rural land characteristics were equally, if not more, important than variables characterizing city land dynamics. Ultimately, this work holds promise in incorporating teleconnections in LULCC modeling efforts.