Predicting the Next Solar Maximum using Trends in the Historical Sunspot Numbers

Abstract:

We use the monthly sunspot numbers (SSNs) dating back to 1749 to generate a function that can consistently predict the peak SSN of a solar cycle to within ~20% a few years before each solar maximum. For each solar maximum from solar cycles 2 through 24, we quantify characteristics of the previous solar cycle along with details of the intervening solar minimum as inputs to the function, which we optimize by iteratively modifying the coefficients until the predicted maximum SSNs most closely match the realized ones. We anticipate making a prediction for the solar cycle 25 maximum by 2021 or 2022.