GC107-08
Sustainable use of groundwater dramatically reduces maize, soybean, and wheat production in the United States

Tuesday, 15 December 2020: 10:28
Virtual
Jonathan Winter1, Jose R. Lopez2, Joshua Wright Elliott3, Alexander C Ruane4, Cheryl Porter5, Gerrit Hoogenboom5, Martha Anderson6 and Christopher Hain7, (1)Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH, United States, (2)University of Minnesota, Department of Agronomy and Plant Genetics, St. Paul, MN, United States, (3)University of Chicago, Center for Robust Decision-making on Climate and Energy Policy, Chicago, IL, United States, (4)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (5)University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States, (6)USDA ARS Hydrology and Remote Sensing Laboratory, Beltsville, MD, United States, (7)NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
The current rate of groundwater extraction in the United States is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on food production. We integrate a gridded crop model with satellite observations and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US agricultural production. Using the most optimistic assumptions for groundwater extraction, we find that sustainable groundwater use will decrease US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using more conservative assumptions of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat will decrease by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of US agricultural production to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands.
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