Applying forecast based actions in rapidly urbanizing cities; the case of heatwaves in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Abstract:

In Hanoi the average daily temperatures have risen in recent years; past heatwaves have led to a 20% increase in hospital admissions for all causes and 45.9% for respiratory diseases.

Forecast-based Financing (FbF) is a modern approach to reduce human suffering and losses because of disasters through early preventing actions, based on in-depth forecast information. FbF is appropriate for a variety of hazards, with experience from recent years leading us to ask questions related to the types of hazards, forecast lead times and socioeconomic contexts, whereby FbF may be more or less valuable. In 2018, FbF was launched for heat waves in the urban context of Hanoi, Vietnam.

The FbF project launched in Vietnam last year (i.e. 2018) focuses on the heat-wave in the urban context of Hanoi city. A three step process was used for the development of this FbF system: (1) analysis of current available weather forecast, (2) building a specific heatwave forecast system, if needed and (3) establish the trigger protocol based on the forecast systems.

Implementing timely and effective early actions can be hindered by lack of subsequent financing mechanisms. Recently, humanitarian organizations such as The International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent and some UN-Agencies have initiated finance streams that can be activated based on forecasts and, used following clear early action protocols. Scaling and mainstreaming such innovative financing mechanisms by governments and International development agencies presents a unique opportunity towards effective and efficient anticipatory humanitarian actions.