Assessing the impact of residential buildings heating electrification on California electricity load and grid capacity requirements in 2030 and 2045.

Abstract:

We study the impacts of residential buildings heating electrification on California electricity demand and electric grid capacity requirements in 2030 and 2045, as California complies with increasing Renewable Portfolio Standards and carbon dioxide emissions limits. We first develop energy demand scenarios that account for residential buildings heating electrification through the adoption of a mix of electric heat pump and electric resistance heating technologies. We find that residential buildings heating electrification has significant effects on electric load shapes by greatly increasing electricity demand in the winter and at the diurnal scale by creating a morning and evening peak in electric load driven by space heating needs. We find that peaks in electric demand shift from "summer peaking" to "winter peaking" depending on the target buildings heating electrification level set as well as climate zone. We observe that electric loads in colder regions of California with higher heating needs in the winter become "winter peaking". To assess electric grid impacts, we input our electricity demand scenarios into a California-wide capacity expansion model to solve for a least-cost energy system in 2030 and 2045. Buildings heating electrification results in overall higher grid capacity needs, energy system costs, storage needs as well as an increase in imports from out-of-California. Our results motivate smart residential buildings heating load management to better integrate buildings electrification into the California grid.