A strategic analysis for achieving net-zero electricity for the UK - a systems-of-systems approach

Abstract:

The UK recently signed into law the world’s most ambitious climate goal of net-zero by 2050. For the UK electricity sector this almost certainly means achieving close to zero carbon emissions by this deadline. The decarbonisation goals for the UK’s electricity sector are therefore quite clear. What is not clear is the best strategy for achieving these goals given the inherent uncertainties associated with such a long-term target. Using a UK national infrastructure system-of-systems model, we show that a policy that focusses on renewables as a primary source of electricity generation represents a low risk, high opportunity strategy. Furthermore, we find that relying purely on a carbon price to achieve this goal may prove to not only be politically challenging, but also technically difficult given the uncertainties around the electrification of heat and transport. The most cost-effective and politically feasible solution might instead be a planned transition using a series of declining emissions caps that force the replacement of existing carbon-intensive plants with renewable solutions as the former become unprofitable and as demand requires. Such a strategy would only require a mid-range carbon price floor to ensure the new clean capacities are sufficiently utilised, with the added incentive of higher cost savings achievable if cost declines in renewables continues into the future. Alternative strategies involving less modular clean technologies, such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage, are also able to achieve the net-zero goal at comparable costs, with the added benefits of base-load certainty, but will require incentivised investment or early, rapid increases in carbon prices to promote the requisite high capital investment. Such alternative strategies also have the added risk of potentially creating path dependencies that could prove expensive in terms of cost and water demands as the UK approaches its net-zero goal.