The potential of sustainable irrigation expansion to rainfed farmlands worldwide

Abstract:

Global crop production is expected to more than double by 2100 in order to sustain the growing demand for agricultural commodities. As a result, human pressure on the limited land and water resources of the planet will likely increase, consequently leading to the intensification of irrigation and its expansion to agricultural areas that are currently rainfed. It is still unclear whether and where this process is limited by hydrological, economic, or institutional constraints and to what extent irrigation can unleash the agricultural potential of rainfed croplands. We map rainfed regions suitable for the sustainable expansion of irrigation, evaluate the associated increase in crop yield and production, and determine the value that can be potentially generated by water in irrigated agriculture around the world. These analyses highlight areas where a strong agricultural potential exists that can be unleashed by an intensification and/or expansion of irrigation. The results explain emerging trends in irrigation expansion detected with satellite remote sensing.