Temporal variability in Permian Basin methane emissions during a period of volatile oil prices triggered by COVID-19

Abstract:

Environmental Defense Fund launched the Permian Basin Methane Analysis Project (PermianMAP) in late 2019 to quantify methane emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry at different spatiotemporal scales in one of the world’s most prolific oil-producing regions. As part of the project, we are quantifying total methane emissions over time in a 10,000 km² high production area of the Delaware sub-Basin along the Texas/New Mexico border by utilizing regional mass balance aircraft flights and a network of towers continuously measuring methane concentrations. These measurements are combined with an atmospheric transport model to develop robust temporally resolved emissions estimates that can be compared with satellite observations. We have publicly released results from the March 9, 2020 mass balance flight on our website (PermianMAP.org); this initial estimate is equivalent to 3.5% of natural gas production, similar to a recently published quantitative estimate for the entire region based on satellite-based observations (Zhang et al. 2020). In spring 2020, crude oil prices crashed as COVID-19 triggered a drop in global fuel consumption and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies failed to cut production; in early summer, prices partially rebounded. We evaluate changes in methane emissions over this period of price volatility, comparing to activity data such as flared gas volumes and new well development. Additionally, we assess TROPOMI observations for evidence of changes in column methane enhancement throughout the entire Permian Basin. Our findings reveal insights into emission sources and their trends, and inform mitigation strategies in the O&G sector generally and Permian Basin specifically, where flaring contributes a large fraction of total emissions and has a strong effect on temporal variability in emission rates.