The impact of COVID-19 on realtime data-driven estimate of U.S. fossil fuel carbon dioxide emissions.

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered daily human activity across the globe. One outcome of this impact is change in energy use and subsequent greenhouse gas emissions. While many parts of the world are recovering from the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases, the United States continues to see increases in COVID-19 caseloads. Here we report on a new energy data-driven, weekly estimate of realtime national U.S. fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO₂) emissions. We find that total U.S. median FFCO₂ emissions reached a maximum decline of -19.5% (-18.3%/-21.7%) during the week ending April 3, 2020, consistent with the timing of near-nationwide COVID-19 lockdown. The total FFCO₂ emissions decline for the April-May sum was -16%. Out of this total absolute emissions decline, motor gasoline was the largest contributor, declining -31.7% followed by electricity generation from coal (decline of -19.4%), jet fuel (decline of -61.5%), and diesel (-13.3%). By contrast, little statistically significant decline was evident in FFCO₂ emissions from natural gas consumption suggesting that the impact to U.S. FFCO₂ emissions were largely confined to the transportation sector and coal electricity generation sectors with a small contribution from the industrial sector. Finally, a statistical forecast model was constructed showing a return to pre-COVID-19 FFCO₂ emissions levels towards the end of the calendar year. This forecast projects an annual decline in U.S. FFCO₂ emissions of -4.9% (-0.03%/-9.4%) compared to the 2019 annual total.