The unequal distribution of natural resources: why geology matters

Abstract:

Without access to energy, a just and peaceful world of 7 billion and growing cannot be sustained. Any strategic plan for sustainable energy access is confronted with two constraints: all sources of energy are directly or indirectly limited by geology, and all types of energy consumption come with negative, but difficult to quantify, environmental and social costs. The geological limits of fossil fuels and the environmental costs of burning such fuels are clear and well known. The limitations of renewable energies are less appreciated. Hydroelectric power is constrained by the availability of water, an unpredictable resource in the face of climate change, population growth, and poor water planning. Expansion of wind, solar or geothermal energies will require efficient transport of electricity and energy storage, the former requiring copper and the latter requiring, at least today, Li and Co. Converting wind into energy requires rare-earth element (REE) magnets. In the natural world, these elements are exceedingly rare and cannot be extracted economically. Only under very unusual circumstances, when many improbable geologic processes align, are these elements enriched to economic levels. Because geology is not fair in distributing Earth’s wealth, countries are never endowed with every mineral they need. The lifespans of global mineral reserves are complex functions of current reserve size, population, per capita consumption rate, efficiencies of use and recycling, and finally the rate at which resources can be discovered and converted to reserves. In this talk, we will estimate reserve lifespans for strategic elements, such as Cu, rare earths, Ni, Co, Li and others. We will discuss how different ore deposits form and how understanding geology, physics, chemistry, hydrology, climate and biology are needed to identify new resources and to develop more efficient and environmentally cleaner ways of ore extraction. From our presentation, it will be clear that our capacity to grow will be limited by the demands we place on natural resources and the environmental costs of extraction. A reduction in energy consumption is needed.