Impact of COVID-19 Driven Mobility Changes and Heat Extremes on Mortality in the United States

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen high spatial and temporal variability in human health impacts across the United States as individual cities, counties, and states have instilled unique guidelines and ordinances in the absence of a blanket federal order. Heat related illnesses remain one of the leading causes of mortality in the US due to extreme weather, and as heatwaves continue to increase in intensity and duration, the risk remains high for vulnerable populations. While historically mortality rates have been mitigated using air conditioning in public spaces, heat shelters, and places of work, millions have seen reduced access to these spaces since March 2020. The populations most vulnerable to mortality for both COVID-19 and heat waves share many of the same demographics: they are older, have pre-existing conditions, and come from low-income and minority households. Given this overlap, it is important to understand how the compound health stressors combine and contribute to mortality in different regions, and the influence of varying shelter-in-place ordinances. We combine historic records of mortality, near-surface air temperature data, and current shelter-in-place indices to identify the influence of mobility changes on heat-related mortality. To do this, we compare historic mortality rates in response to extreme heat to rates during the Summer of 2020. In addition, we explore the effect of various socio-economic variables on the severity of mortality. The results of this study may aid in understanding the role of public intervention on mitigating heat risks to human health.