GC079-06
Methane Mitigation: An Achievable and Affordable Lever to Slow the Rate of Climate Change and Limit Peak Warming
Friday, 11 December 2020: 19:16
Virtual
Steve Hamburg1, Ilissa Ocko1, Tianyi Sun2, Drew T Shindell3, Michael Oppenheimer4, Alexander N. Hristov5, Stephen W Pacala6, Denise L Mauzerall7 and Yangyang Xu8, (1)Environmental Defense Fund New York, New York, NY, United States, (2)Environmental Defense Fund, Austin, TX, United States, (3)Duke University, Durham, NC, United States, (4)Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States, (5)Pennsylvania State University, Animal Science, University Park, PA, United States, (6)Princeton University, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton, NJ, United States, (7)Princeton University, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States, (8)Texas A&M University College Station, College Station, TX, United States
Abstract:
Achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions by midcentury – the major focus of governments and companies at the moment – requires immediate actions to get us on the path to net zero. There is less urgency, on the other hand, to curb emissions of short-lived climate pollutants such as methane, given that assessments show that we can wait to do so until midcentury and still remain below broadly agreed upon long-term temperature targets. However, this approach overlooks the readily available and largely affordable opportunity to limit warming over the next few decades by immediately and rapidly reducing methane emissions.
This analysis combines science, technology, economics, policy, and modeling to quantify the amount of methane emissions that can be reduced with existing strategies and the resultant warming we could avoid in the near- and long-term by their rapid deployment. We find that we could eliminate half of methane emissions from human activities with existing technologies and practices and many at no net cost. Deployment of cost effective measures alone yields major climate benefits, such as slowing the rate of decadal warming by 15%; avoiding a tenth of a degree (°C) of additional warming by midcentury; and setting ourselves on a path to avoid a quarter of a degree (°C) of additional warming by end of century. Pursing all available measures would more than double these benefits. While waiting to pursue these measures until midcentury leads to the same long-term benefits, we miss the unique opportunity to limit damages during our lifetimes. While not a substitute for the unequivocally imperative need to reduce CO2 emissions, methane mitigation is a powerful ally that should be pursued now with increased seriousness.
