Ensemble Streamflow Simulations using WRF-Hydro at Lake George, New York

Abstract:

Lake George, in upstate New York, is a glacial, oligotrophic water body with pristine water quality. Recently, it has experienced ecological changes due to the influx of invasive species, increasing levels of salt from road de-icing agents as well as nutrient loading via storm water runoff. Thus, improved prediction of runoff and discharge plays a key role in downstream applications. We will present analyses of ensemble simulations of streamflow in the Lake George watershed for 2018-2019. The purpose of the present study is to assess the role of land-surface, hydrology and forcing data sets on the streamflow prediction.

In order to study these impacts, a framework comprising of a modeling system and observations in the Lake George watershed is used. The present work focuses on the following components: (a) community version of the WRF-Hydro model; (b) a comprehensive observational dataset consisting of streamflow, soil moisture and weather parameters; (c) ensemble streamflow simulations based on land surface and hydrological parameters for 2018-2019 for specific extreme events; (d) an evaluation of different precipitation forcing datasets. The WRF-Hydro simulations are performed in standalone mode with meteorological forcing provided by high-resolution (333m) implementation of WRF-ARW, which is part of the aforementioned modeling system. We would present the preliminary results of this analysis.