Assessing Global Climate Models Arctic Sea-Ice Prediction Through Comparison with Observational Data

Abstract:

As sea-ice continues to recede throughout the Arctic, the open water window for which transit through the Northwest Passage is extended. In the interest of gaining insight into the potential opportunities and risks posed in future Northwest Passage transit, high resolution forecasting of arctic sea-ice is a necessity. This presentation seeks to assess the viability of recognized Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide climate forecast data that can be used to drive a high-resolution model of arctic sea ice coverage and thickness in future research. To accomplish this goal, GCM hindcast accuracy will be assessed specifically in the Arctic region with focus on parameters relevant to Northwest Passage transit, such as sea-ice thickness and concentration. In the initial vetting stage, a review of previously performed assessments of GCMs, such as those endorsed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), will be done to identify potential GCM candidates suitable for the next stage of assessment. After an array of competing GCMs have been selected, comparison of GCM hindcasting of arctic sea-ice thickness and concentration will be performed by utilizing publicly available observational data from ESA’s CryoSat-2 and NASA Icebridge. Through this process, a number of metrics, figures, and diagrams will be derived to reflect the hindcast accuracy of the analyzed GCMs. Finally, conclusions will be presented for which GCMs are most suitable for the purpose of providing climate forecast data that can be used in high-resolution forecasting and modeling of arctic sea-ice.