Prediction of Solar Wind and CMEs at Solar Orbiter by WSA-ENLIL

Abstract:

We present results of global heliospheric simulations relevant to the Solar Orbiter from March 2020 to November 2020. These predictions were computed by the 3-D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) heliospheric code ENLIL that uses outputs from the coronal WSA model utilizing the GONG photospheric observations together with the geometric and kinematic parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed remotely by coronagraphs. This modeling system can provide a near-real-time prediction of heliospheric space weather and it is operationally used at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). We will present: (1) global structures of the solar wind speed and density at the ecliptic, (2) temporal profiles of solar wind parameters at the spacecraft, (3) magnetic field connectivity at the spacecraft, and (4) synthetic white-light imaging. These results can be directly compared with in-situ measurements and remote observations. Numerical simulations also provide the global context needed for interpretation of multi-spacecraft observations by ACE, STEREO-A, Parker Solar Probe (PSP), BepiColombo, and Solar Orbiter.