Effects of Trans-boundary Structural Interventions on the Indus River Flows

Abstract:

Pakistan is an agricultural country with more than 75% dependency in the water sector and relying mainly on one water basin, namely Indus Basin. The two rival states (Pakistan & India) have always been in confrontation with each other. However, Indus Water Treaty 1960 has been a great achievement for the solution of water distribution between the two countries but in last two decades increased demand of energy instigated the Indian Govt. to introduce interventions on the Western Rivers of Indus Basin and started managing river flows of Pakistan which are against the Treaty.

This research is aimed to study different options available with the adversary to ascertain the effects of Indian structural interventions on River Indus’ flows. The study has been performed by parallel filling and discharging of two Indian reservoirs namely Nimoo Bazgo and Chutak to their full capacity under different scenarios. The balance River Indus’ flows obtained after the temporary stoppage or discharge of reservoirs has then been assumed to be the inflows at Pakistan's first gauging station i.e. Kharmong. The inflows thus obtained at Kharmong gauging station after stoppage or discharge has been compared with the historical inflows. Also, analyzed Indian capacity to create drought or flood situation in Pakistan by controlling inflows from those reservoirs during the lean period (Oct-Mar) and flood period (April-Sept) of the year respectively.

The results revealed that with a temporary stoppage or discharge of inflows at the two Indian reservoirs (mal-operation), India can cause material damage to Pakistan in terms of reduction of 50% inflow at Kharmong from normal inflow for about 30 days or a shortfall of water about 42,000 Acre Feet reaching Kharmong during lean period i.e. the period of minimum inflow. India can also cause damage by increasing 2.5 times more inflow at Kharmong from normal flow for about 24 hours during flood period i.e. period of maximum inflow. The results also showed that if India has 0.25MAF general storage on River Indus, as allowed in the Treaty, then it can stop the flow to upstream of Kharmong for about 38days in the lean period and can also create a flood situation at Kharmong by discharging 0.25MAF water in flood period. The effects have been discussed on agricultural, power generation, and Tarbela Dam reservoir operation.