A System Dynamics Based Reservoir Operation Model

Abstract:

A multi-purpose reservoir is a basic water infrastructure in river basin planning. But its operation depends upon multiple factors linked with each other in a complex manner. Uncertainties associated with upstream runoff and downstream demands are two major controlling factors which are further affected by several physical, social, economic, environmental and policy elements. Moreover, the state of the reservoir system also plays a crucial role in its smooth operation. Hence the complex inter-linkages existing among all the elements, controlling the operation of a reservoir need to be modeled minutely for an effective and sustainable management of a reservoir system. However, none of the previous studies has considered this while developing reservoir operating rules. Therefore, the present study tries to get a deeper insight into the key dynamics associated with the complex reservoir operation through system thinking approach. A detail casual feedback loop is developed incorporating all possible factors into it followed by the identification of the reinforcing and balancing loops and the leverage points subsequently. Various scenarios were investigated in order to evaluate the potential impacts on the system variables and the cascading effects on the causal chains. A novel index was formulated in order to assess how the reservoir system will respond to the conditions that might occur in future. This model was tested in a reservoir command located in the eastern part of India. The developed model will certainly help the water managers and policy makers to determine the optimal reservoir storage capacity during the design procedure and to test several operating policies prior to their implementations in actual control section ensuring efficient long-term and short-term reservoir operational planning.