Progress towards an international atmospheric carbon observing system

Abstract:

We will describe the evolution of the global atmospheric carbon observing system and assess the current state of in situ measurement networks and remote sensing assets. We will evaluate a suite of model products using in situ measurements from >50 institutions from around the world that contribute data to the GLOBALVIEWplus CO₂ and CH₄ ObsPack data products compiled by the NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory. We will employ a geostatistical approach to remove spatially and temporally coherent biases from the model fields and to produce maps of uncertainty that depend on the scatter of the residuals (i.e. bias-corrected simulated values minus observations) and remaining across-model spread after bias correction. We will compare satellite retrievals with the model ensemble to investigate discrepancies between retrievals and the bias-corrected model fields, rigorously considering uncertainties. This analysis will provide insight into where new in situ measurements would be most helpful for tracking carbon emissions and removals and for detecting anticipated climate-carbon feedbacks and potential surprises.