Dos and Don'ts for navigating model selection in climate change work for water planning and management

Abstract:

Climate change research has produced a proliferation of model output from many global climate models, downscaling techniques, hydrologic models, and impacts models. This research has yielded insights into how climate change will impact hydrology that are more robust than any single approach, which is helpful for advancing the science. However, the variety of approaches and outcomes makes it challenging to navigate and select what information to use in water resource planning and management. This paper describes the current state of climate change modeling (including climate models, downscaling techniques, and hydrologic models) by reviewing current literature and synthesizing recommendations for using climate change scenarios in water resource planning and management. We provide a set of “DOs and DON’Ts” for model selection alongside guidance for how to acknowledge and navigate uncertainty without becoming overwhelmed by it. The review provides insights for continued dialogue within and between the Earth science and application communities, with the aim to increase the appropriate use of climate change information.