Agricultural migration to avoid future climate change

Abstract:

Agricultural expansion is one of the largest drivers of land-use change and a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Over the next century, climate change is projected to have mixed impacts on agricultural production, benefiting crops in historically cooler regions while making conditions unsuitable for the cultivation of crops in warmer regions. The stability and efficiency of future food production may thus be strongly affected by the degree of climate warming in key cultivation regions. We investigate spatial shifts in the historical climate envelopes of each of the four major crops (maize, rice, soybean, and wheat), globally and in different regions, and quantify the related warming rates and velocities of agricultural areas if these crops either do not move or shift to remain in the historical climatic envelope, respectively. Finally, we discuss the socioeconomic implications of agricultural migration as a means of climate adaptation.