Air quality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Novel Development of Wildfire Smoke Emission Forecasts from an Early Warning System

Abstract:

Recent studies show that air pollutant exposure can worsen COVID-19 symptoms and outcomes (e.g., Conticini et al., 2020 and Travaglio et al., 2020). In particular, smoke from wildland and prescribed fires are a complex mixture of air pollutants that potentially can impair lung function and increase susceptibility to respiratory infections, such as in conjunction with COVID-19. With recurring seasonal annual wildfires across the U.S. and managed prescribed fire programs, it is of interest to develop new tools for extending smoke predictions from short-term timelines to longer-term seasonal forecasts.

The research presented here focuses on the use of CONSUME and Fuel Characteristic Classification system (FCCS) emissions models integrating Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) fuels characteristics, satellite sensed wildfire area from Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS), and operational National Fire Danger Rating System components to calculate historical emissions and apply those results to National Weather Service operational daily to week-2 forecasts to investigate smoke-meteorology relationships and generate forecasts of emissions. The resulting experimental smoke forecast product is intended to provide decision-support for a wide variety of national public health and governmental use across the country.