Decision making under uncertainty: a case of triggering anticipatory action for Cyclone Amphan in COVID-19 context

Abstract:

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change and is exposed to a multitude of natural hazards and extreme weather events such as floods, cyclones, droughts, heat waves, etc. The Red Cross Red Crescent movement has introduced a Forecast based Financing (FbF) anticipatory approach to reduce disaster impacts. The idea is to act before a hazard event turns into a disaster, based on credible impact forecasts, underpinned by weather forecasts and data on societal vulnerabilities. This paper discusses some of the challenges associated with making decision on triggering anticipatory actions for Super Cyclone Amphan in an environment further challenged by Covid-19. While the Government was enforcing social distancing, the early actions entailed evacuating people and bringing them together in the cyclone shelter, which could pose a risk in transmission of the contagion. Most of the houses in coastal areas of Bangladesh are highly vulnerable to cyclone wind and storm surge; cyclone shelters are safe, but the challenge there is to maintain social distance. Against this backdrop, we present a case study on the use of data sources to inform anticipatory actions to save lives and livelihoods of 36 000 people from forecasted high risk areas, and evacuate to 192 shelters in Super Cyclone Amphan during the COVID-19 pandemic.