A power framework for making decarbonization technology decisions and a case study of transportation

Abstract:

A net-zero energy system will require any emitted greenhouse gases to be offset with capture and sequestration methods. While we have made substantial technological progress in areas like light-duty passenger vehicle electrification and zero-carbon electricity generation, there are many areas where the technological path forward is less clear. In these hard to decarbonize sectors, there are often competing technologies (e.g. hydrogen, ammonia, solar fuels, battery energy storage) with trade-offs between additional infrastructure necessary to deliver the energy carrier to the point of consumption and additional infrastructure necessary to recapture emitted greenhouse gases: a process that has not been well-bounded in previous analyses that focus on any single technology pathway, or do not account for the true infrastructure necessary to capture and sequester greenhouse gases. We frame the analysis by focusing on the power of different energy delivery technologies, and the scale of resources necessary to provide for the different delivery mechanisms, while accounting for the infrastructure necessary to capture and sequester carbon through different methods. We do not attempt to predict the future, in terms of energy demands or selected technologies, but instead focus on providing some illustrative transportation (passenger vehicle, heavy-duty on-road transport, shipping, aviation) case studies, and highlight inflection points when different technology pathways would be more advantageous, and highlight areas where technological improvement would be the most beneficial for driving different decisions.