MJO Teleconnections in a Future Climate

Abstract:

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important sources of global weather predictability on the extended time range of about 10-40 days. Its impact on remote weather is influenced by a number of factors, including the static stability of the tropics, the intensity of MJO precipitation, the MJO’s propagation speed, the eastward extent of MJO convection, and the mean state winds, each of which may evolve in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. For many parts of the extratropics, climate models do not agree on how the MJO teleconnection will change with warming, part of which may be tied to poor model representation of the MJO. This work explores the mechanisms driving changes to the MJO teleconnection under global warming, aided by results from idealized simulations.