Improving Environmental Forecast Models through Stakeholder Engagement

Abstract:

Environmental modelling efforts can inform decision-makers in many sectors. However, models are often created without in-depth consideration of stakeholder usability needs. To bridge the gap between environmental modeling and its use, NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) and the University of Michigan’s Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research (CIGLR) have developed an approach for co-designing Great Lakes environmental information products with targeted stakeholders. This approach applies social science research methodologies (including interviews, focus groups, and qualitative data analysis) to an iterative four-step process: 1) User Decision-Making and Information Needs Assessment, 2) Product Prototype Development, 3) Prototype Usability Evaluation, 4) Product Dissemination. In a case study, we used our approach to co-design a short-term Great Lakes ice forecast under NOAA’s Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS). Co-design was conducted with members of the shipping and navigation industry, and implemented with additional support from the University of Michigan’s Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA). We employed a series of stakeholder engagement activities and scenario planning exercises to map stakeholder’s decisions, identify variables of interest, and clarify preferences for interpreting forecast uncertainty. Our process created an ice forecast that is informed by user needs and ready for easy application by decision-makers. Furthermore, our work provides lessons on how stakeholder-driven refinement of models and forecast products can potentially improve their usability and acceptance among the user community.