OS003-0010
Multi-model ensemble projections of sea-level using the Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model probabilisticframework and CMIP5/CMIP6 outputs.
Multi-model ensemble projections of sea-level using the Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model probabilisticframework and CMIP5/CMIP6 outputs.
Monday, 7 December 2020
Poster
Abstract:
There is currently a strong need to update probabilistic sea-level projections to adopt the new
simulation outputs from CMIP6. There is indeed a large multi-model ensemble that can be used towards
better constraining the uncertainty in 21st century projections, in particular as it relates
to dynamic and thermo-steric sea-level change. In addition, multiple MIP (Modeling Inter-comparison
Projects) have propagated CMIP5/CMIP6 results in areas required to understand the barystatic components
of sea-level change, in particular GlacierMIP2 for glaciers and ISMIP6 for polar ice sheets. Here we
present a massive high-spatial and temporal resolution multi-model ensemble analysis of sea-level change
patterns over the 21st century that combines dynamic and thermo-steric sea-level from CMIP5/6 with
barystatic signals from ISMIP6, GlacierMIP2 and GIA statistics. We rely on the ISSM (Ice-Sheet
and Sea-Level System Model) probabilistic SLPS (Sea-Level Projection System) to compute .3 degree lat/long
sea-level change fingerprints at yearly time scales to provide sea-level statistics for the whole
world for the entire 21st century. We quantify the impact of our approach against more classical approaches
that do not rely on a MME approach or on comprehensive sea-level fingerprinting that is coherent both
in time and space.
simulation outputs from CMIP6. There is indeed a large multi-model ensemble that can be used towards
better constraining the uncertainty in 21st century projections, in particular as it relates
to dynamic and thermo-steric sea-level change. In addition, multiple MIP (Modeling Inter-comparison
Projects) have propagated CMIP5/CMIP6 results in areas required to understand the barystatic components
of sea-level change, in particular GlacierMIP2 for glaciers and ISMIP6 for polar ice sheets. Here we
present a massive high-spatial and temporal resolution multi-model ensemble analysis of sea-level change
patterns over the 21st century that combines dynamic and thermo-steric sea-level from CMIP5/6 with
barystatic signals from ISMIP6, GlacierMIP2 and GIA statistics. We rely on the ISSM (Ice-Sheet
and Sea-Level System Model) probabilistic SLPS (Sea-Level Projection System) to compute .3 degree lat/long
sea-level change fingerprints at yearly time scales to provide sea-level statistics for the whole
world for the entire 21st century. We quantify the impact of our approach against more classical approaches
that do not rely on a MME approach or on comprehensive sea-level fingerprinting that is coherent both
in time and space.
This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.