Understanding Uncertainty in Extreme Rainfall Events

Abstract:

Floods are some of the most deadly and costly natural disasters to occur. Yet forecasting where heavy rainfall may occur- even a day or two ahead of a significant event can frequently be difficult with high levels of uncertainty. Understanding inherent uncertainty in major flood events may help local governments as well as humanitarian organizations to be able to react to these events and better protect life and property. An analysis will be presented on recent significant events, as well as some forecast tools that may help clarify uncertainty in events.