OS021-01
Coral constraints on ENSO in a warming world

Wednesday, 9 December 2020: 19:00
Virtual
Kim M Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, Gemma K. O'Connor, University of Washington, Earth and Space Sciences, Seattle, WA, United States, Nicholas T Hitt, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences, Wellington, New Zealand, Hussein Sayani, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, Pamela R Grothe, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, Julien Emile-Geay, Univ. of Southern California, Department of Earth Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States, Alyssa R. Atwood, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, Christopher D Charles, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Hai Cheng, University of Minnesota, Department of Earth Sciences, Minneapolis, MN, United States, Yanbin Lu, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Minneapolis, MN, United States and R. Lawrence Edwards, Nanjing Normal University, Dept. of Geography, Nanjing, China
Recorded Presentation
Abstract:
Coral records provide the bulk of our information about the evolution of El Niño and La Niña events from the pre-industrial to the present, yet are under acute threat from ocean heat waves that are increasing in frequency and duration across the tropics. Deep investments in coral-based paleoclimate research has yielded a large network of monthly- to annually-resolved records including significant replication at several key sites. At the same time, advances in paleoclimate data/model intercomparison and paleoclimate data assimilation have unlocked a new set of questions that can be quantitatively addressed with the available network. As promising as this combination is, it has in large part served to illuminate the number and type of real-world observations that are required to deliver on the full potential of coral records as ENSO archives. In this talk, we review the frontier of coral-based ENSO reconstruction, including a host of existing and new evidence in line with a late 20th century intensification of ENSO in the central tropical Pacific. We present new and existing data that illustrate three strategies for further refining our understanding of the nature and magnitude of the recent climate shift uncovered in coral archives: 1) via extension, replication, and validation of records from key locations, 2) via the collection of water isotope observations from across the tropical Pacific, and 3) via a coordinated effort to rescue existing coral records that are under rising threat from warming oceans.
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