GH002-06
A data-driven analysis linking the influence of anomalous climate conditions on infectious disease pandemics

Monday, 7 December 2020: 10:45
Virtual
Subarna Bhattacharyya, Climformatics, Inc., Fremont, CA, United States, Detelina Ivanova, Climformatics, Inc, La Jolla, CA, United States, Debasish Chattopadhyay, University of Alabama, School of Medicine, Department of Chemistry, Birmingham, AL, United States and Soham Saha, Mission San Jose High School, Fremont, CA, United States
Abstract:
Recent literature explores several pathways in which a warming climate could affect human health1,2. Seasonal factors (for instance, flow of viruses from tropical to temperate regions and back in each hemisphere’s respective winter) may drive susceptibility or transmission of infectious diseases3. In the temperate regions, seasonal influenza virus outbreaks correlate closely with decreases in humidity6. SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus both cause acute respiratory infections, are highly transmissible, and infect adults. Without active interventions to stop SARS-CoV-2 transmission, how the virus may linger on through seasonal migratory patterns is not well understood. Why most respiratory pathogens prevail in the winter of temperate regions is unclear3. Here we address some of these questions by analyzing historical flu and climate data.

Our hypothesis is that extreme or anomalous climate conditions could drive transmission and occurrence of infectious diseases. El Nino events with weak trans-nino index (TNI4) are associated with causing droughts in India4. The Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 which killed about 40-50 million people worldwide occurred during one of the strongest El Nino events of the 20th century4. One of the strongest droughts also occurred in 1918 in India. Coincidental with such changes in global climate, the influenza pandemic killed about 18 million in India that summer.

Here we study the co-occurrences of global pandemics with anomalous climatic conditions like El Nino, Pacific Decadal Oscillations and Marine Heat Wave5. Such large-scale climate events could perpetuate drought-like low-humidity drier conditions which could be conducive to flu virus causing respiratory diseases. El Nino events are expected to be more frequent and extreme under future anthropogenic forcing7. This is likely to impact the prevalence and occurrences of diseases.

References:

  1. USGCRP, 2016: http://dx.doi.org/10.7930/J0R49NQX
  2. Dincer et al. (eds.), 2010 DOI 10.1007/978-1-4419-1017-2_45
  3. Cobey, S. 2020, 10.1126/science.abb5659 (2020)

4.Giese et al 2010, BAMS, DOI:10.1175/2009BAMS2903.1

  1. Amaya et al 2020, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15820-w
  2. Kudo et al 2019, PNAS, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1902840116
  3. Wang et al 2019, PNAS, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1911130116
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