Natural hazards and the risks for societal stability and violent conflict

Abstract:

Natural hazards, such as storms, flooding, and droughts, are projected to increase with climate change. This has drawn attention to concerns that natural hazards and social stability, especially violence and armed conflict, could be linked through multiple and interacting pathways. Armed conflict and other forms of violence may contribute to natural hazard vulnerabilities as well as be affected by the societal impacts of disaster. The relationship between hazard exposure and adverse societal outcomes is also conditional on existing factors and vulnerabilities such as economic performance and livelihoods, institutional effectiveness, social capital, and other aspects of human security. To explore these relationships, we develop a conceptual model to explain how hazards may disrupt societal functioning, focusing on the potential interactions with armed conflict onset and termination. We then employ a dataset of tropical cyclones, socioeconomic conditions, institutions, and armed conflicts to examine the relationships between these variables. Tropical cyclone hazard and exposure are modeled at high-resolutions using a parametric wind speed model and time-variant, gridded population data. This work informs efforts to reduce disaster risk and promote future resilience by enhancing societal functioning under climate change.