A Stochastic Expression for the Variation of Wind Speed and Estimation Error

Abstract:

This study was performed to examine the variation of maximum wind speed estimation error in undulated rural regions and represent the probability distribution of wind speed occurrence more than a critical value. Wind speed data measured at 130 automatic weather stations in 2019 were collected and compared between daily averaged data and maximum data to derive linear regression equations. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the equation, and the estimation error was calculated. The error was expressed using the Weibull distribution probability density function. A critical wind speed of 10m/s was selected as a threshold value causing damage to fruit drop. The cumulative probabilities were obtained through the Weibull distribution curve for expressing the estimation error of the daily maximum wind speed.