Planning for Abrupt Change: Societal evaluation and response to near-term risk in complex systems

Abstract:

How can we best ensure a safe climate for present and future generations? One of the great challenges of assessing and responding to global warming is understanding its operation on the complex system that is Earth’s climate, and conveying that understanding in societally-useful ways under circumstances of rapidly changing environmental conditions and evolving scientific evidence.

The SilverLining Foundation is a non-profit policy organization that engages with policymakers, researchers and others on near-term risks and interventions in climate. Here we describe frameworks for contextualizing the nature of climate uncertainty and decision-making heuristics that have successfully generated public and private support for research to improve understanding of abrupt change risks and evaluate technological interventions with the potential to rapidly reduce warming to avoid abrupt, catastrophic changes in climate. This will include discussion of communication with policy makers and policy developments in the United States and approaches to international decision-making. Also discussed is the importance of improving the quality of evidence available for decision-making and ensuring it is available well in advance of when decisions must be made.