Data-driven estimates of hydro-logic fluxes and its drivers in Mongolia

Abstract:

Water scarcity became a global issue, and water consumption was increased six-fold for the last centennial due to population growth and economic development (UNESCO, 2020). Mongolia also faces water challenges due to livestock overgrazing and the mining industry's boom for the last two decades. Therefore, effective water resource management is crucial to determine water availability depending on the unique ecosystem characteristics. Gobi-desert in the south is an endorheic basin, and the groundwater excessively used for the mining operations. Steppe in the central area, and the mountain taiga located in the northern part, where tourism and agriculture are the main economic drivers. Therefore, the estimation of spatiotemporal hydrologic fluxes patterns may become an essential requirement to develop integrated water resource management. Fortunately, nowadays, remote sensing allows the study of the hydrological cycle in the data-scarce region. Precipitation, surface water, and groundwater can be obtained from in-situ and remote sensing observations directly. At the same time, evapotranspiration and infiltration can be calculated based on other observable geophysical parameters. Finally, runoff can be quantified using a water balance equation. The water budget calculation can be modeled by analyzing publicly available data such as MODIS ET, GLDAS model, GRACE, and GRACE-FO. The preliminary result shows that annual evapotranspiration gradually increases over precipitation between 2010 and 2019. Additionally, actual evapotranspiration in the internal drainage basin needs to be calculated as several uncertainties occurred related to the data. Once the hydrologic fluxes result finalized, it can be compared with population growth, livestock increase, and mining areas to define whether it correlates, and any possible preventive actions.