H111-0035
The Nelson-MiP project: a large-scale multi-model inter-comparison project of hydrological processes in the Saskatchewan-Nelson-Churchill river basin in Canada
Friday, 11 December 2020
Poster
Oyémonbadé Hervé Rodrigue Awoye1, Tricia Stadnyk2, Ajay Ratna Bajracharya1, Curtis Hallborg3, Ameer Muhammad3, Yinlong Huang4, Masoud Asadzadeh5, Monireh Faramarzi6, Pouya Khalili6, Mohammad Badrul Masud6, Quan Cui6, Shane Wruth7, Phillip Slota8, Mark Gervais8, Kevin Sagan8, Kristina A Koenig7, Rajtantra Lilhare9, Stephen Déry9, Fuad Yassin10, Bruce Davison11, Scott Pokorny12, Hank Venema13, Martyn P Clark14, Wouter Knoben15, Shervan Gharari16, Habtamu Tolossa17, Fisaha Unduche18, Juliane Mai19, Bryan Tolson20, James R Craig20, Frank Seglenieks21, André Guy Tranquille Temgoua21, Daniel G. Princz22, Mohamed Elshamy23, German Mojica24, Mohammad Khaled Akhtar25 and Saman Razavi10, (1)University of Calgary, Department of Geography, Calgary, AB, Canada, (2)University of Calgary, Department of Geography, Calgary, Canada, (3)Water Security Agency, Moose Jaw, SK, Canada, (4)University of Manitoba, Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, (5)University of Manitoba, Department of Civil Engineering, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, (6)University of Alberta, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Edmonton, AB, Canada, (7)Manitoba Hydro, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, (8)Manitoba Hydro, Winnipeg, Canada, (9)University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC, Canada, (10)University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (11)Environment Canada, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (12)University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, (13)Strategic Consulting, Winnipeg, Canada, (14)NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States, (15)University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom, (16)Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands, (17)Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Canada, (18)Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Canada, (19)Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research UFZ Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany, (20)University of Waterloo, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Waterloo, ON, Canada, (21)Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Hydrological Services, Burlington, ON, Canada, (22)University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (23)Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (24)TransAlta, Edmonton, AB, Canada, (25)Alberta Environment and Parks, Edmonton, AB, Canada
Abstract:
The Nelson-MiP project on the Saskatchewan-Nelson-Churchill river basin includes a wide range of process-based hydrologic and land surface models for operational and/or research purposes. Participating models include HYPE, WATFLOOD, SWAT, HBV, VIC, and MESH, as well as the modelling frameworks RAVEN and SUMMA. This three-year modelling experiment (2020-2022) has gathered hydrologic researchers, model developers, and practitioners from many institutions across Canada. As part of the Integrated Modelling Program of Canada under the umbrella of Global Water Futures (GWF) program, this project aims to evaluate internal model processes and generate an ensemble of GWF land surface and hydrologic models for the Saskatchewan-Nelson-Churchill river basin. Beyond the understanding of the drivers of the differences among models from an internal process perspective, this project’s main contribution is to assess the reliability of the participating models for the prediction of key hydrologic processes and streamflow under changing climate conditions. First year of this effort focuses on adapting the process-based models to the low-human impacted sub-watersheds while water regulations/ diversions will be accounted for in the second year. A set of CMIP6 climate models-driven present-day and future climate change impact projections on the watershed hydrology is foreseen for the third year of the project. This presentation will give an update on the design of the inter-comparison project and preliminary results.
The results of this project will serve to demonstrate the differences in model capabilities. We will learn from each model’s particular strengths and weaknesses in modelling fluxes and storages and provide valuable feedback for model developers. Throughout the project duration, the project team is holding monthly meetings and will share codes and data on a private repository. In the final stage of the project, the model codes and data generated will be made openly accessible through the project website.
The generated multi-model ensembles will help to quantify the uncertainty of hydrologic processes, including states and fluxes, with and without human alterations through regulations, and under climate change. We will also learn about the conditions under which each process algorithm is most applicable.
