Conflict and Coalitions in Managing Uncertainty in a Megacity

Abstract:

The emergence of megacities over the past sixty years signals a new era for management of complex, multi-scale water resources systems. As population grows in these cities, so too does urban water demand and issues related to water scarcity leading to risky reliance on unsustainable water extractions. These risks are often compounded by a variety of additional uncertain factors such as the impacts of climate change on water availability, which play out at different spatial and temporal scales. The physical dimensions of the challenge, though important, are often dwarfed when one considers the social and political aspects. Competing interests of decision makers can be difficult to overcome. This is in part due to institutional fragmentation across sectors and multiple scales of governance. The example of Mexico City Metropolitan Area and its water supply is used to explore the influence of jurisdictional allocation decisions on stakeholder specified management objectives, including quality and equity of water service provision. Factor prioritization approaches are used to identify current alignment and conflict between sectoral and jurisdictional interests as well as how these relationships vary across space, time and climate futures. Ultimately, this work strives to provide insights on the nature of shared vulnerability and opportunities for cooperation amongst actors in order to inform an ongoing multi-institutional dialog on water resources planning under uncertainty.