Statistical analysis of the correlations between climatic factors and Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance

Abstract:

The mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) exhibited complex spatial and temporal patterns. The improvement in understanding the driving climatic mechanism of the variations in the ice sheet’s mass balance is crucial for predicting its potential contribution to sea-level rise under different scenarios of climate change. We base our research on previous efforts of using altimetry measurements to obtain the ice mass balance changes due to Surface Mass Balance and Ice Dynamics and climatic outputs from the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3p2). Observational data are helpful in doing calibrations and verifications. We present a statistical analysis of the relationships between the climatic factors and mass balance of individual tidewater glaciers as well as different drainage basins on the GrIS for the period of 1993 - 2019. Surface Mass Balance can be reconstructed well with the climatic factors, while uncertainties remain especially at the edge of the ice sheet. The dynamic ice loss is much harder to be interpreted by the atmospheric climatic variables, ocean temperature and other non-climatic factors are having significant impacts on the behaviors of the tidewater glaciers. To decipher the complex driving climatic mechanisms of the tidewater glaciers, we include non-linear methods and records of the terminus position and ice velocity. With more climatic data and improvement of the climatic modeling, the statistical correlation analysis will be enhanced to facilitate the modeling of the behaviors of the glaciers on the Greenland Ice Sheet.