Flash Droughts: Changing the Drought Early Warning Paradigm

Abstract:

There is no excuse for having drought sneak up on them. Rapid onset (i.e., “flash droughts”) droughts may provide us an opportunity to break a paradigm focused on the idea that all droughts are slow onset events. Diligent monitoring at the weekly scale, coupled with a focus on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting, is required to trigger action when it comes to drought policy and plans at all levels.

The strength of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is found in its ability to integrate and ingest new data sources as they mature and come on-line after a transparent vetting period, thus helping increase the resolution (both spatial and temporal) and accuracy of the USDM.

Several worthy flash drought tools have come on-line operational over the past decade. As a result, we are “rapidly” increasing flash drought detection capacity within the USDM (e.g. 2016 in Black Hills and Southeast (Great Smoky Mountain fires) and 2017 in the High Plains). The USDM didn’t have this capacity for the iconic, widespread 2012 flash drought across the central U.S.

Changing our “slow onset” drought early warning mentality is needed to better account for these “rapid onset” drought events. Perhaps this type of drought stimulus will appeal to the shorter decision time lines and planning horizons of decision makers and policy makers. In time, flash droughts may become the stimulus needed to provide opportunities and get drought on more planners and practitioners’ “radar” leading to better integration of drought risk management into process, practice and policy.

All types of drought require proactive attention, but we cannot let the idea that drought is only a slow-onset disaster become the only doctrine. This presentation will discuss this relatively nascent flash drought concept and how it has altered the drought early warning landscape here and around the globe. At the end of the day, dealing with flash drought isn’t just about changing our “tool sets”, but rather our “mindsets”.