Simplicity lacks robustness when projecting heat-health outcomes in a changing climate

Abstract:

Extreme heat adversely affects human health, productivity, and well-being, with more frequent and intense heatwaves projected to increase exposures. However, projected risks oversimplify critical inter-individual factors of human thermoregulation, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future adverse health outcomes. The general applicability, and thus usability, of projections are questionable when they are based on a single ambient threshold (versus a range of outcomes with underlying uncertainty) applied to an inanimate unclothed human. This talk will overview advancements that are needed to better assess human behavior, physiology, and adaptive capacity, which must be considered in heat-health projection to provide more robust climate impact assessments. Analogous to the assessment of multiple types of uncertainty in climate change projections, frameworks can help to quantify uncertainty in human physiological and behavioral factors in future heat-health outcomes modeling. In practice, inclusion of this information could shift efforts towards the appropriate provision of heat adaptation strategies and management of heat exposure for the most vulnerable populations; more appropriate management of scarce heat-health resources; proper adaptation strategies and urban growth; and underline the need for climate change mitigation.