Prediction and tracking of atmospheric gas and OLR change in the sequence earthquakesin Xinjiang, Jiashi in January 2020

Abstract:

Seismic activities can change atmospheric composition, especially the increment of greenhouse gases prior to strong earthquakes. This research studied the spatiotemporal variation of CH4, CO, O3 during the Jiashi earthquake o（Xinjiang Province, January 2020）using AIRS retrieval data and the OLR change also have been studied. Firstly, we use the AIRS data find the gas anomalous, and then the tide force was considered to analyses short term change. The tide force change of epicenter in the time range from December 13, 2019 to February 3, 2019 is calculated, and according to the period of the tide force as the time background indication, the daily increment distribution of ground long wave radiation(OLR) changes is analyzed by using the remote sensing radiation data of China provided by NOAA. A large anomalous area was centered at the epicenter 16d before the earthquake occurred, and a trend of strengthening, weakening and strengthening appeared over time. In the four consecutive cycles of the tide force, the earthquakes occurred in the peak period of the tide, which was the only OLR enhancement region in the whole mainland of China. The radiation enhancement is synchronous with the tide, and the evolution of radiation in time and space goes through the process of micro enhancement - enhancement - micro attenuation - enhancement - calmness, which was consistent with the evolution characteristics of outward infrared radiation in the process of micro rupture - rupture - locking - Accelerated rupture - rupture experienced by rock stress strain - rupture. This shows that the tidal force changes the process of stress accumulation and imbalance in the structure during this earthquake, which has the effect of touch induced earthquake, and the change of OLR reflects the change process of the seismic stress. It also shows that in the practice of earthquake prediction, the comprehensive analysis of remote sensing radiation and tidal force change in multiple time scales will help to improve the earthquake prediction ability.